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Isis declares caliphate in Iraq and Syria

This article is more than 9 years old
  • Baghdadi announced as leader of Muslims everywhere
  • Iraq says new caliphate threatens all countries
  • Iraqi forces battle to retake Tikrit
  • Israel calls for the creation of a separate Kurdish state
  • Read the latest summary
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Mon 30 Jun 2014 10.01 EDTFirst published on Mon 30 Jun 2014 02.16 EDT
Footage aired on Iraqi state television apparently shows Iraqi government troops launching attacks on Isis militants, east of Tikrit. During the brief military operation soldiers claim to uncover a weapons storage facility and regain two trucks that had been taken by militants after they swept through large parts of northern Iraq on 11 June Guardian

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Summary

We are to pause the live coverage for now. Here's a reminder of where things stand:

Indian nurses working in a hospital in Tikrit report hearing continual bombardment around the building, according to the BBC.

"We cannot live here another day. The entire night we have only heard bombs bursting all around the hospital," Marina Jose, one of the 46 stranded nurses, told BBC Hindi by phone.

"Yesterday, three cars near the casualty department were burnt when a bomb was thrown from a helicopter."

One of the nurses in the large ward-turned-dormitory at the hospital had "developed fits [seizures] last night. The lone doctor at the hospital, Dr Ali, came and attended to her", Jose said.

Battle for Tikrit - map shows Iraqi forces attempting to seize back control from Isis fighters http://t.co/BgspjXEFcA pic.twitter.com/sxktGPZcsd

— BBC News Graphics (@BBCNewsGraphics) June 30, 2014

Activists who back the insurgents have posted video claiming to show civilian houses destroyed by government air raids on Tikrit. The clip cannot be independently verified.

The announcement of a caliphate has been greeted with more disdain, including from rival Islamist groups in Syria, according to AP.

"The gangs of al-Baghdadi are living in a fantasy world. They're delusional. They want to establish a state but they don't have the elements for it," said Abdel-Rahman al-Shami, a spokesman for the Army of Islam, an Islamist rebel group in Syria. "You cannot establish a state through looting, sabotage and bombing."

Speaking over Skype from Eastern Ghouta, near the capital Damascus, al-Shami described the declaration as "psychological warfare" which he predicted will turn people against the Islamic State.

In Iraq the declaration is viewed through the prism of the country's rising sectarian tensions.

"This is a project that was well-planned to rupture the society and to spread chaos and damage," said Hamid al-Mutlaq, a Sunni lawmaker. "This is not to the benefit of the Iraqi people, but instead it will increase the differences and splits."

Aymenn al-Tamimi, an analyst who specializes in Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria, said he expects some of those allies could be disillusioned by the declaration.

"Now the insurgents in Iraq have no excuse for working with Isis if they were hoping to share power with Isis. The prospect of infighting in Iraq is increased for sure."
The Iraqi government, which has long tried portray the broader Sunni insurgency it faces as solely a terrorist threat, pointed to the Islamic State's declaration to back up its claims.

"This is what we have been saying that this origination is a terrorist one that should be fought, but regrettably, there are some people, the tribal revolutionaries, who are providing cover for it," Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Moussawi said.

"The world now bears a big and ethical responsibility to fight those terrorists who made Iraq and Syria their battlefield. We are fighting them not for the sake of Iraq only, but for the sake of the whole world.

Nouri al-Maliki's days in office may be numbered, according to AFP in a look ahead to the opening Iraq's new parliament which is supposed to take place on Tuesday.

Maliki's Sunni and Kurdish rivals are refusing to grant him a third term, while his own bloc - less cohesive than during the previous 2010 election - has been subsumed into a pan-Shiaalliance, thereby lessening his clout.

"There is a discussion going on" within Maliki's State of Law alliance over whether to replace the premier, said a Western diplomat on condition of anonymity.

"There are clearly talks going on," the diplomat said, adding: "It is quite a critical few days... This is an important period politically."

Maliki staked his reputation as the leader who brought violence under control in 2008 as Iraq emerged from a brutal Sunni-Shiite sectarian war.

But a rise in unrest this year, culminating in the sudden advance of jihadist-led Sunni militants who overran swathes of territory, has done significant damage.

The formal resurrection of the pan-Shia National Alliance coalition, that includes State of Law and rival groups, further dilutes Maliki's claim to the post, which was based on his party having won nearly three times as many seats in the polls as the next closest contender.

The recreation of the NA instead raises the spectre of a prime ministerial candidate emerging from any of the alliance's constituent parties.

"After the election, his chances were good, but the security breakdown in the country has clearly hurt him," said Hakim al-Zamili, an MP from the Ahrar bloc loyal to powerful Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

"Maliki's chances now are weak under these circumstances - the security problems, problems with the Sunnis, the Sadrists, the Kurds."

Under a de facto agreement, the Iraqi premier - by far the most powerful position in the country - is typically a Shia Arab, the parliament speaker is Sunni Arab, and the national president a Kurd.

Though no single candidate has emerged as the frontrunner to replace Maliki, several names from within the country's majority Shiite community have been floated.

Well-known figures such as former vice president Adel Abdel Mehdi, ex-premier Ibrahim al-Jaafari, and ex-deputy premier Ahmed Chalabi are all being touted alongside backroom power brokers such as Maliki's current chief of staff Tareq Najim.

Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, flanked by former prime minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, left, and Iraq's Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi. Photograph: Hadi Mizban/AP Photograph: Hadi Mizban/AP

Historians, analysts and Isis itself have all been highly critical of the Sykes Picot borders drawn up by the French and British after the First World War.

The FT's Roula Khalaf this is unfair. She says the borders are not as arbitary as they appear, and fails to take account of more serious subsequent blunders.

To blame Sykes-Picot is to ignore the fact that territorial nationalism is deeply entrenched in Arab states today, despite the repeated outbreak of sectarian violence ...

To emphasise Sykes-Picot in the Middle East’s current predicament, is to miss the region’s real problem: the tragic failure of successive postcolonial governments to build inclusive states that would reinforce a national identity. It is the tyranny of Syria’s ruling Assad clan, the dictatorship of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and the ineptitude of Nouri al-Maliki, the current prime minister, that have driven the Middle East to catastrophe, rather than century-old lines drawn in the sand.

Summary

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At least three senior jihadi leaders have condemned the Isis caliphate, according to Aaron Zelin Washington Institute analyst and author of the Jihadology blog.

Many top jihadi Shaykhs have come out against Islamic State's Caliphate announcement including Hamid bin Ali, Hani al-Siba'i & Umar Hadushi.

— Aaron Y. Zelin (@azelin) June 30, 2014

Swedish jihadlogist, Aron Lund, is underwhelmed by the level of support shown for Isis in Raqqa.

If this is the biggest crowd they could achieve in their "capital" of Raqqa, that caliphate is in serious trouble: https://t.co/FuuQm3tSM8

— Aron Lund (@aron_ld) June 30, 2014

Seven young men from Holland have recorded a video celebrating the declaration of a caliphate.

The men look nervous and some hide their faces, but the clip is likely to add to anxiety in Europe about young men becoming radicalised by events in Syria and Iraq.

Brookings analyst Charles Lister explains more about why he thinks the caliphate announcement is so significant.

In an email breifing he writes:

The impact of this announcement will be global as al-Qaida affiliates and independent jihadist groups must now definitively choose to support and join the Islamic State or to oppose it. The Islamic State’s announcement made it clear that it would perceive any group that failed to pledge allegiance an enemy of Islam. Already, this new Islamic State has received statements of support and opposition from jihadist factions in Syria – this period of judgment is extremely important and will likely continue for some time to come.

In retrospect, one could surmise that ISI and then ISIS, has been working towards this point for years now. As an organization, ISIS has become the wealthiest militant group in the world with assets in the low $ billions and has developed an almost obsessive level of bureaucracy, account keeping, and centrally controlled but locally implemented military-political coordination. Moreover, since the seizure of territory and crucially, population, in areas of Syria in 2013, it has developed an increasingly efficient model of governance, capable of simultaneously implementing harsh medieval justice and a whole range of modern social services.

Geographically, ISIS is already fully operational in Iraq and Syria; it has a covert presence in southern Turkey, appears to be establishing a small presence in Lebanon; and has supporters in Jordan, Gaza, the Sinai, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. This could well be the birth of a totally new era of transnational jihadism.

Perhaps most significantly, this announcement poses a huge threat to al-Qaida and its long-time position of leadership of the international jihadist cause. Put simply, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi [pictured] has declared war on Al-Qaida. While it is now inevitable that members and prominent supporters of al-Qaida and its affiliates will rapidly move to denounce Baghdadi and this announcement, it is the long-term implications that may prove more significant. Taken globally, the younger generation of the jihadist community is becoming more and more supportive of ISIS, largely out of fealty to its slick and proven capacity for attaining rapid results through brutality. The recent seizure of Mosul and other gains in Iraq has already dramatically boosted ISIS’ recruitment potential, but this announcement will likely make recent events seem very minor in comparison. Nonetheless, al-Qaida will retain considerable support and once the dust has settled, we will very likely find ourselves in a dualistic position of having two competing international jihadist representatives – al-Qaida, with a now more locally-focused and gradual approach to success; and the Islamic State, with a hunger for rapid results and total hostility for competition.

In Iraq, the announcement will pose a significant risk of provoking other Sunni-composed groups fighting the government to turn against ISIS, thereby potentially precipitating a new, third front within the emerging Iraqi civil conflict. On the other hand, the huge morale boost this will create within ISIS circles in Iraq could help spur on an eventual push on Baghdad. Whatever judgments are made, an increase in violence in Iraq can be expected in the immediate term ...

Intriguingly, it is only a Caliph that has the legal legitimacy to declare or order an offensive jihad. This announcement makes it all the more plausible that Baghdadi may position his forces to begin operations further afield, perhaps in Jordan or Saudi Arabia. Even before this announcement, the chance that ISIS could have chosen to expand its target set looked to be increasing, but now, that looks almost to be a certainty.

A undated handout picture released by the US Department of States Bureau of Diplomatic Security allegedly shows a photograph of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
A undated handout picture released by the US Department of States Bureau of Diplomatic Security allegedly shows a photograph of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Photograph: HO -/AFP/Getty Images Photograph: HO -/AFP/Getty Images
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The Iraqi government appears to believe that the declaration of a caliphate will help boost its pleas for international intervention against Isis.

It shows the group has become a threat to all countries, Iraqi army spokesman Qassim Atta told Reuters.It quoted him saying:

This declaration is a message by Islamic State not only to Iraq or Syria but to the region and the world. The message is that Islamic State has become a threat to all countries.

I believe all the countries, once they read the declaration will change their attitudes because it orders everybody to be loyal to it.

So far the US has resisted Iraqi pleas for air strikes against Isis. Last week prime minister Nouri al-Maliki signalled he maybe looking elsewhere for backing when he welcomed Syrian airstrikes against Isis fighters near the border.

Meanwhile, Syria's ally Russia has sent its first war planes to Baghdad. The government said they will be operational within a few days.

Analyst Shashank Joshi cautions against being alarmed by the bluster of Isis. Writing in the Telegraph before the group formerly declared a caliphate, he says:

There are good reasons to think that Isis’ caliphate could run out of steam long before it matches the great Islamic empires of history.

Isis has hostile forces in every direction. It will face resistance from anti-Isis Syrian rebels in the west, the hostility of Kurds in the north, and, eventually, a counter-offensive from government forces to the south. Even if the government collapses – and we are a long way from that – then Iraq’s Shia majority will not accept a permanent jihadist state on their northern flank, let alone allow Isis to stroll into Baghdad. Saddam slaughtered Shias in 1991, and Isis has been slaughtering Shias for over a decade. The Shias have had quite enough, thank you.

Iraq’s neighbours will also fight back. Ankara does not look kindly at the fact that Isis has kidnapped Turkish diplomats in Mosul. Iran is not just aghast at the rise of a radical Sunni force on its western border, but concerned about losing an ally in Baghdad that it views as more important than even Assad. Tehran is reportedly airlifting over a hundred tons of supplies to Baghdad daily, and deployed its special forces there weeks ago.

If Isis attempts to conduct attacks against Western countries, as the prime minister warned last week, then it will face the near certainty of air strikes. It can hunker down safely in urban areas like Mosul, but large stretches of its territory are completely devoid of cover. It will suffer grievous losses.

But Charles Lister, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, suggested the west should be alarmed. Talking to the Times he said the announcement was likely to be the “most significant development in international jihadism since 9/11”.

He saidi:

Isis is already fully operational in Iraq and Syria. It has a covert presence in southern Turkey, appears to be establishing a small presence in Lebanon and has supporters in Jordan, Gaza, the Sinai, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere.

An audio statement from Isis (or IS) declares that's new caliphate is a fully functioning state, including a new justice system and tax raising powers.

Belgium based Jihad watcher Pieter Van Ostaeyen provides a translated transcript.

He quoted the group saying:

Here the flag of the Islamic State ... rises and flutters. Its shade covers land from Aleppo to Diyala. Beneath it, the walls of the tawāghīt (rulers claiming the rights of Allah) have
been demolished, their flags have fallen, and their borders have been destroyed.

Their soldiers are either killed, imprisoned, or defeated. The Muslims are honored. The kuffār (infidels) are disgraced. Ahlus-Sunnah (the Sunnis) are masters and are esteemed.

The people of bid’ah (heresy) are humiliated. The
hudūd (Sharia penalties) are implemented – the hudūd of Allah – all of them. The frontlines are defended.
Crosses and graves are demolished. Prisoners are released by the edge of the sword. The people in the lands of the State move about for their livelihood and journeys, feeling safe regarding their lives and wealth. Wulāt (plural of wālī or “governors”) and judges have been appointed.

Jizyah (a tax imposed on kuffār) has been enforced. Fay’ (money taken from the kuffār without battle) and zakat (obligatory alms) have been collected. Courts have been established to resolve disputes and complaints. Evil has been removed. Lessons and classes have been held in the masājid (plural of masjid) and, by the grace of Allah, the religion has become completely for Allah.

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Tikrit has become the key focus for fighting, and conflicting claims about its progress.

The Iraqi army attempted to take back the city last week with reports that helicopters had flown in troops to drive out the insurgents.

On the southern outskirts, a battle continues to rage, residents told Reuters.

Iraqi state TV has broadcast footage of convoys of tanks being driven to Tikrit.

Video from activists, who back the Sunni insurgents, purported to show the city on Sunday with no sign of the Iraqi security services.

On Saturday it was reported that troops backed by helicopter gunships began their push to regain control of Tikrit.

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The declaration of a caliphate could help end the confusion about what to call the Sunni insurgents sweeping Iraq and Syria.

The group has been variously referred to as Isis (The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham), Isil (The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) or the colloquial local term "Da'ash".

Now it has declared itself simply the Islamic State or IS. AFP has already changed its style.

AFP has changed its style on the group formerly known as ISIL/ISIS. We now refer to the group as the Islamic State (IS).

— Prashant Rao (@prashantrao) June 30, 2014

The declaration of a caliphate is a massive gamble that smacks of hubris and puts many Isis gains at risk, according to terrorism expert JM Berger. But writing for the Daily Beast he says:

If Isis is driven back, Baghdadi risks being seen as the man who grasped for the caliphate, held it in his hands for one brief shining moment, then lost it all.

Such a loss would highlight the hubris of ISIS in making this pronouncement and would also seem to validate the arguments of al-Qaida emir Ayman al Zawahiri that Isis's methodology was flawed and that the splinter group was putting the cart of an Islamic state ahead of the horse of fighting jihad.

The question now is how confident ISIS is about its ability to hold substantial territory in Iraq (reports suggest it is under heavy pressure in Tikrit already, and the United States has yet to deploy any airpower against the insurgents). If ISIS made sure its partners are the ground would support the pronouncement and if it withheld the pronouncement until it was sure it had consolidated its gains, then it is in a position to reap benefits.

If Isis rushed its timeline or overruled objections from local partners, it may lose its territorial gains quickly and end up condemned for an arrogant and ill-advised power grab. The wording of its pronouncement certainly reeks of arrogance, demanding an oath of loyalty from essentially all Muslims, with dissenters being labelled sinners at best, or apostates at worst.

At best, and in the absence of any surprising new information (which could certainly be coming), ISIS appears to be standing on the edge of a precipice with an adolescent faith in its ability to keep its balance.

It may be able to walk that line, but it's a stunning and unnecessary risk by a group that could have navigated the next few months with excellent odds of an outcome that ranged from good to very good. Now it has introduced a much higher risk of an outcome that is truly bad for its long-term prospects.

Berger cautions that the gamble could pay off if the US plays into Isis hands by launching air strikes.

Such a strike would bestow on Isis the one thing it has until now been unable to definitively claim—legitimacy. A potential new line of jihadist argument then emerges: The caliphate was restored, but it was directly destroyed by the United States.

Isis clearly believes that a critical mass of Muslims sympathises with them, according to Yassin Musharbash an expert on radical Islam.

In a new blog post he says Isis is trying to garner more support by declaring a new caliphate.

Isis is very likely hoping that the declaration of the "Caliphate" may lead to tribes or villages or other groups of people outside of the Iraq/Syria-theatre declaring their allegiance to Abu Bakr [al-Baghdadi]. While Isis would know pretty well that this is not sustainable, it could still lead to a degree of chaos and strife in countries like Jordan or Lebanon or Saudi Arabia that may suit ISIS quite well. Remember: Since Zarqawi's days we know that the concept of destabilizing countries is part of the DNA of that group.

It is interesting to note that ISIS argues that any delay in the declaration of a "Caliphate" would be wrong. Saying we had to announce it rather than we wanted to announce it is clever and can become part of a narrative that has the power to convince more people.

You can't declare a Caliphate every other week. This is something that Abu Bakr can do once, and only once. This is why I think he must be pretty confident that even if everybody around him unites against him, he is still able to hold onto some areas.

Isis has produced a slick video, mostly in English, explaining the new caliphate in Iraq and Syria. It is entitled "End of Sykes Picot", a reference to the agreement between France and Britain on divvying up Iraq and Syria after the first world war.

"This is not the first border we will break, we will break other borders," its spokesman warns. Standing on a border sign he threatens to "break the borders" of Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon.

Later he pledges that Isis will free Palestine. "We are not here to replace an Arab cahoot with a Western cahoot. Rather our jihad is more lofty and higher. We are fighting to make the word of Allah the highest," the spokesman says.

He is filmed showing abandoned Iraqi army badges and vehicles left by fleeing soldiers. "There is no army in the world that can stand the soldiers of Islam," he said.

He also shows US-made Humvees and Fords captured from the border police. "Look how much American spends to fight Islam, and it ends up just being in our pockets," the spokesman taunts.

He boasts that Isis controls planes and helicopters, but these are not shown.

The video also features about a dozen men in a cell said to be captured troops and border police. At the end of a clip a building, said to be a police station, is shown being blown up.

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How scared should the international community be of Isis given that it is surrounded by its enemies? asks Atlantic commentator Robert Wright,

Talking on Bloggingheads TV he pointed out taht governing a caliphate would be a "full time job" for the insurgents, and that the group broke away from al-Qaida in part because it wanted to focus on forming such a state rather than attacking the US.

Fellow pundint Peter Beinart agreed that the threat posed by Isis may have been exaggerated, but that its real danger was unknown.

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Supporters of Isis, or Islamic State as they now call themselves, celebrated the announcement of a new caliphate in Iraq and Syria by firing shots into the air in the eastern Syrian city of Raqqa.

Welcome to our live coverage of the crisis in Iraq.

Here's a roundup of the latest developments:

More on this story

More on this story

  • Gunmen kill more than 30 in raid on Baghdad housing complex

  • Kurds on Iraq's new faultline feel destiny beckoning

  • Isis seizes former chemical weapons plant in Iraq

  • Iraqi parliament agrees to meet next week after criticism over delay

  • Iraq parliament chaos deepens as MPs fail to agree on new speaker

  • Kurds push for independence vote amid Iraq chaos

  • Iraq: Kurdish president proposes independence referendum

  • Water supply key to outcome of conflicts in Iraq and Syria, experts warn

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